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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP