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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to SF 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP