4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread -9.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
69.2%
SF
30.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Blaine Gabbert (SF) -0.256 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.167 EPA/dropback (SF starting Blaine Gabbert in place of Colin Kaepernick)
  • ATL offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
SF 19
Projected margin: ATL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ATL

Robert Alford CB Out Groin
Justin Durant LB Out Calf
Leonard Hankerson WR Out Hamstring
William Moore S Out Groin
Vic Beasley DE Questionable Foot
Jonathan Babineaux DT Probable Not Injury Related
Tyson Jackson DE Probable Ribs
Mike Person C Probable Ankle
James Stone G Probable Calf
Desmond Trufant CB Probable Back
Nick Williams WR Probable Hamstring

SF

Mike Davis RB Out Hand
Carlos Hyde RB Out Foot
L.J. McCray S Out Knee
Anquan Boldin WR Doubtful Hamstring
Kenneth Acker CB Questionable Chest
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Shin
Garrett Celek TE Questionable Concussion
Keith Reaser CB Questionable Not Injury Related
Alex Boone G Probable Knee
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Bradley Pinion P Probable right Calf
Eric Reid S Probable Chest
Joe Staley T Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 16
–
SF 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 FG ATL (9:30) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 13:45 TD SF (13:45) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 06:10 FG ATL (6:10) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – SF 7
  • Q2 03:25 FG SF (3:25) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – SF 10
  • Q2 01:20 TD SF (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – SF 16
  • Q2 00:21 TD ATL (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 16. 16-yds YAC ATL 12 – SF 17
  • Q4 03:00 FG ATL (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 16 – SF 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to ATL 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to ATL 28 for 12 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (9:30) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to 50 for 41 yards (5-B.Pinion).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 19 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to SF 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 97%

    (:26) 30-K.Gaskins right guard to ATL 8 for 1 yard (95-J.Babineaux).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 49%

    (9:12) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to SF 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:49) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ATL 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at SF 45 for 14 yards (89-V.McDonald).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (6:10) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (3:25) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to SF 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 28 for 17 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on ATL-80-L.Toilolo, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 28.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to SF 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-E.Weems.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to ATL 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 9 yards (30-K.Gaskins).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (:06) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to SF 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to ATL 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to SF 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:07) 49-B.Miller up the middle to SF 47 for 1 yard (56-B.Reed). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 07:59.)

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.