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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model