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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 49-B.Miller up the middle to SF 47 for 1 yard (56-B.Reed). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 07:59.)

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.26 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model