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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model