Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(8:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to 50 for 41 yards (5-B.Pinion).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model