Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(5:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to SF 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.89 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model