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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to CAR 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 38 for 8 yards (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model