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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

GB
49.3%
CAR
50.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.145 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 22
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

GB

Quinten Rollins CB Questionable Neck
Sam Shields CB Questionable Shoulder
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Ankle
Aaron Ripkowski RB Probable Illness
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Nick Perry LB Probable Shoulder

CAR

Dwan Edwards DT Out Ankle
Andrew Norwell G Out Hamstring
Mario Addison DE Probable Shoulder
Ed Dickson TE Probable Hamstring
Ryan Kalil C Probable Ankle
Josh Norman CB Probable Illness
Shaq Thompson LB Probable Knee
Fernando Velasco C Probable Shoulder
Teddy Williams CB Probable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 29
–
CAR 37

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 FG CAR (10:16) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. GB 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 01:05 TD GB (1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-R.Rodgers for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CAR 3
  • Q2 12:14 TD CAR (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CAR 9
  • Q2 08:59 TD CAR (8:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CAR 16
  • Q2 05:05 FG CAR (5:05) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. GB 7 – CAR 20
  • Q2 00:49 TD CAR (:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-C.Brown for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-39-D.Goodson, Defensive Holding, declined. GB 7 – CAR 26
  • Q3 14:10 TD GB (14:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – CAR 27
  • Q3 04:52 FG CAR (4:52) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. GB 14 – CAR 30
  • Q4 09:27 TD CAR (9:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – CAR 36
  • Q4 08:04 TD GB (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 44-J.Starks for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 20 – CAR 37
  • Q4 03:47 TD GB (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-K.Coleman]. GB 28 – CAR 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (10:16) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:03) 8-T.Masthay punts 56 yards to CAR 26, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn to GB 42 for 32 yards (51-N.Palmer; 8-T.Masthay). PENALTY on CAR-43-F.Whittaker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:59) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to GB 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 35 for 15 yards (14-J.Webb).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:32) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to CAR 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 38 for 8 yards (91-J.Elliott).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:03) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to CAR 33, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis. PENALTY on GB-36-L.Gunter, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CAR 33.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 67%

    (5:05) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 82%

    (3:55) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:00) 8-T.Masthay punts 26 yards to CAR 48, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:14) 8-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to GB 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde to GB 35 for no gain (42-C.Jones).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (11:34) 8-T.Masthay punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (4:52) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:05) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to CAR 18, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 29 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:03) 8-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to GB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:50) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to CAR 10, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 11 for 1 yard (83-J.Janis).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:53) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to GB 39, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde to GB 40 for 1 yard (55-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:55) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to CAR 15, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 26 for 11 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:29) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to GB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 89-J.Jones to CAR 20 for 36 yards (24-J.Norman).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to CAR 9 for 8 yards (25-B.Benwikere).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 89-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis [99-K.Short] at CAR 4. 58-T.Davis to CAR 3 for -1 yards (70-T.Lang).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (:19) 8-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde to GB 45 for 16 yards (20-K.Coleman). PENALTY on GB-36-L.Gunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 31.