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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 17 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model