Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 27 – Green Bay Packers 14

(13:14) 8-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to GB 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde to GB 35 for no gain (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model