4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 14 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 8-T.Masthay punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model