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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 4

Carolina Panthers 27 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP