Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 30 – Green Bay Packers 14

(3:03) 8-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to GB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.13 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model