4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 14 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to CAR 15, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 26 for 11 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model