Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

(6:59) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to GB 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 35 for 15 yards (14-J.Webb).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model