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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 12

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 4-M.Darr punts 26 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model