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Miami Dolphins

3-5 HC Joe Philbin
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Buffalo Bills

4-4 HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 13:00 ET Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
35.7%
BUF
64.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.127 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.046 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Tyrod Taylor in place of EJ Manuel)
  • BUF offense: +0.005 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.003 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • BUF on 4 more days rest than MIA

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20 13–27
–
BUF 25 18–32
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Jordan Kovacs S Doubtful Knee
DeVante Parker WR Doubtful Foot
Damien Williams RB Questionable Thumb
Jordan Cameron TE Questionable Hamstring
Neville Hewitt LB Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Knee
Reshad Jones S Probable Shoulder
Brice McCain CB Probable Knee
Matt Moore QB Probable Nose
Spencer Paysinger LB Probable Shoulder
Brent Grimes CB Probable Ribs
Koa Misi LB Probable Foot

BUF

Percy Harvin WR Out Knee
Kyle Williams DT Out Knee
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Ankle
Corey Graham CB Probable Groin
Seantrel Henderson T Probable Concussion
A.J. Tarpley LB Probable Concussion
Tyrod Taylor QB Probable Knee
Mario Williams DE Probable Knee
Karlos Williams RB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
BUF 33

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:51 SAF BUF (11:51) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 0, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Ball snapped out of end zone. MIA 0 – BUF 2
  • Q1 08:58 TD BUF (8:58) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key downfield block: C.Glenn. MIA 0 – BUF 8
  • Q2 11:32 TD MIA (11:32) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 9
  • Q2 07:12 FG BUF (7:12) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. MIA 7 – BUF 12
  • Q2 02:32 TD BUF (2:32) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: J.Felton. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIA 7 – BUF 18
  • Q3 10:08 TD MIA (10:08) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 19
  • Q3 02:29 TD BUF (2:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught on run towards rear corner of end zone. MIA 14 – BUF 25
  • Q4 08:44 TD BUF (8:44) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key seal block: R.Incognito. MIA 14 – BUF 32
  • Q4 03:56 FG MIA (3:56) 3-A.Franks 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 17 – BUF 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:03) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to MIA 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 21 for 10 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to MIA 11 (foul committed during kick). PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 11.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (5:01) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-28-Bo.McCain, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry. PENALTY on MIA-34-Da.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (7:12) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (4:41) 4-M.Darr punts 26 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:01) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to MIA 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 18 yards (52-P.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 24%

    (15:00) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin. PENALTY on MIA-92-J.Denney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 10.

    See the full breakdown →