Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to MIA 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 21 for 10 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to MIA 11 (foul committed during kick). PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.85 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model