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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 19 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to MIA 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 18 yards (52-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model