4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 26

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin. PENALTY on MIA-92-J.Denney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model