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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 11

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to PIT 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP