Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.256 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.188 EPA/dropback
- PIT defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
OAK
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:16 TD LV (12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – PIT 0
- Q1 04:44 FG PIT (4:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. OAK 7 – PIT 3
- Q2 14:02 TD PIT (14:02) 34-De.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – PIT 9
- Q2 06:10 TD LV (6:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – PIT 11
- Q2 02:00 TD PIT (2:00) (Shotgun) 34-De.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. OAK 14 – PIT 17
- Q2 00:33 FG PIT (:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. OAK 14 – PIT 21
- Q3 07:07 TD LV (7:07) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 88-C.Walford for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – PIT 21
- Q4 12:21 TD PIT (12:21) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 10-M.Bryant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 21 – PIT 27
- Q4 11:28 TD PIT (11:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 21 – PIT 34
- Q4 09:37 TD LV (9:37) 49-J.Olawale left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 27 – PIT 35
- Q4 01:21 TD LV (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-M.Mitchell]. OAK 34 – PIT 35
- Q4 00:04 FG PIT (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. OAK 35 – PIT 38
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 66%
(12:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 84-A.Brown (29-D.Amerson).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 20%
(10:07) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to LV 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.
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Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 92Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 52%
(9:06) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to PIT 44, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 41 for -3 yards (22-T.Jones).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%
(4:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 22%
(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to PIT 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 17 for 5 yards (42-L.Asante; 22-T.Jones).
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Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%
(10:55) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to PIT 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(10:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to PIT 40, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-45-R.Nix.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 34-De.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(1:07) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to PIT 41, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%
(:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q3 LV 4th & 16 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:15) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 25 yards to LV 46, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds. Punt was deflected by #48 Dupree.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%
(11:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to LV 10, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-M.Thigpen.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%
(2:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%
(1:23) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 34 yards to PIT 9, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-51-B.Heeney.
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Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(6:18) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to PIT 39, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-A.Brown to PIT 39 for no gain (18-A.Holmes). FUMBLES (18-A.Holmes), RECOVERED by LV-57-R.Armstrong at PIT 39. 57-R.Armstrong to PIT 39 for no gain (84-A.Brown).