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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 96

Pittsburgh Steelers 11 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to PIT 40, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-45-R.Nix.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.32 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 96, worth -5.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 53, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model