4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 11 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 34-De.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +4.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.30 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model