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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to PIT 41, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model