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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to LV 10, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-M.Thigpen.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model