4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 34 yards to PIT 9, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-51-B.Heeney.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP