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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to LV 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.09 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP