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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 92

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to PIT 44, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 41 for -3 yards (22-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.08 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP