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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model