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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to PIT 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 17 for 5 yards (42-L.Asante; 22-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model