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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 1
Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7
What Actually Happened
(9:06) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +1.16 EP
KICK
+2.31 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
