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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PHI
57.1%
DAL
42.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Matt Cassel (DAL) -0.295 vs Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.049 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than DAL
  • PHI defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
DAL 19
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

PHI

Jason Peters T Out Back
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Ankle
Ryan Mathews RB Questionable Groin
DeMeco Ryans LB Questionable Hamstring
Kiko Alonso LB Probable Knee
Brandon Bair DE Probable Groin
Bryan Braman LB Probable Shoulder

DAL

Brice Butler WR Questionable Hamstring
Barry Church S Questionable Ankle
Matt Cassel QB Probable Knee
James Hanna TE Probable Ankle
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Back
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 33
–
DAL 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:50 TD DAL (6:50) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a slant pattern. PHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:06 TD PHI (9:06) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DAL 7
  • Q3 08:38 TD PHI (8:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-59-A.Hitchens was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PHI 13 – DAL 7
  • Q3 02:11 TD DAL (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – DAL 13
  • Q4 12:59 TD PHI (12:59) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right intended for 20-D.McFadden INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at PHI 33. 58-J.Hicks for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – DAL 14
  • Q4 11:04 TD DAL (11:04) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass deep left to 88-D.Bryant for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught by Bryant in the back of the endzone after scramble by Cassel PHI 21 – DAL 20
  • Q4 07:27 FG PHI (7:27) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 24 – DAL 21
  • Q4 02:58 FG DAL (2:58) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 24 – DAL 24
  • Q4 01:51 FG PHI (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 27 – DAL 24
  • Q4 00:07 FG DAL (:07) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Ball hits the left upright and went through. PHI 27 – DAL 27
  • Q5 11:08 TD PHI (11:08) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep right to 81-J.Matthews for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – DAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:43) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to DAL 1, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 7 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (8:15) 20-D.McFadden right guard to PHI 7 for 2 yards (94-B.Allen). Injury update: Dallas's Jack Crawford has a hand injury; is being evaluated in locker room.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:03) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DAL 17, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to PHI 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley. Penalty on DAL, Defensive 12 On-field, declined.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to PHI 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (9:06) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:04) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to PHI 5, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:31) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 29 for -1 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (7:27) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (2:58) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%

    (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short middle to 83-T.Williams to DAL 36 for 11 yards (23-N.Carroll).