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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to DAL 1, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 7 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.78 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP