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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 29 for -1 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model