Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(1:29) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short middle to 83-T.Williams to DAL 36 for 11 yards (23-N.Carroll).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model