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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 20-D.McFadden right guard to PHI 7 for 2 yards (94-B.Allen). Injury update: Dallas's Jack Crawford has a hand injury; is being evaluated in locker room.

The Three Options

GO +3.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.64 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model