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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(13:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to LA 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for 12 yards (85-R.Ellison).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.45 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model