4th & Data
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St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 13:00 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

STL
34.0%
MIN
66.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.003 vs Nick Foles (LA) -0.176 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

STL 17
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

STL

Chris Long DE Out Knee
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Ankle
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Foot
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Knee
Tre Mason RB Questionable Ankle
William Hayes DE Questionable Thigh
Chase Reynolds RB Questionable Thigh

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Out Ribs
Justin Trattou DE Out Foot
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Back
Joe Berger C Probable Chest
T.J. Clemmings T Probable Neck
Audie Cole LB Probable Finger
Stefon Diggs WR Probable Hamstring
Rhett Ellison TE Probable Concussion
Everson Griffen DE Probable Neck
Tom Johnson DT Probable Knee
Harrison Smith S Probable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 18
–
MIN 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 FG MIN (10:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. STL 0 – MIN 3
  • Q1 05:29 TD MIN (5:29) 28-A.Peterson right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 0 – MIN 9
  • Q1 01:14 TD LA (1:14) (Run formation) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. STL 6 – MIN 10
  • Q2 11:00 FG LA (11:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 9 – MIN 10
  • Q2 03:27 FG LA (3:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 12 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 15 – MIN 10
  • Q3 08:44 TD MIN (8:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 15 – MIN 16
  • Q4 00:17 FG LA (:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 18 – MIN 18
  • Q5 09:24 FG MIN (9:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. STL 18 – MIN 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:02) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 25 yards to LA 46, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (10:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:05) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to MIN 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 20 for no gain (12-S.Bailey).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to LA 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for 12 yards (85-R.Ellison).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 35%

    (11:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 26 for -1 yards (26-T.Waynes).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 23%

    (6:35) 5-N.Foles up the middle to MIN 46 for 2 yards (98-L.Joseph).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (3:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:56) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to LA 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN. Whistle blew prior to ball being downed

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:09) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to MIN 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at MIN 40 for 6 yards.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:41) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to MIN 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 54 yards to LA 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 8 yards (58-B.Watts).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:19) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to MIN 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 27 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 23%

    (9:50) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to MIN 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-47-M.Roberson.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:54) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:59) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to MIN 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 8 yards (36-B.Cunningham).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 29 yards to LA 35, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

    (1:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 20 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to LA 31, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 39 for 8 yards (51-E.Robinson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.