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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 25 yards to LA 46, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model