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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.68 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP