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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model