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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 12 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model