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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:09) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to MIN 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at MIN 40 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 90, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 47, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model