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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to MIN 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model