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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 54 yards to LA 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 8 yards (58-B.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model