4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(12:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 27 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.72 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP