Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Los Angeles Rams 15

(7:54) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model